Hur förändras våra liv när oljebristen tar sitt järngrepp på vårt överflödssamhälle?|
Jag har i sommar läst en hel del om den kommande oljebristen (se andra filer på min hemsida) och blir alltmer övertygad om att detta är en mycket stor utmaning för oss alla och något som kommer att prägla historien under detta århundrade mer än något annat.
En artikel som jag läst säkert 5 ggr i sommar är
"THE DECLINE OF THE PETROLEUM AGE"
Det är en intervju med Colin Campbell från UK, en av världens främsta energistrateger, en oljegeolog med stor erfarenhet av oljeprospektering. Han har arbetat för BP, Texaco, Fina och Amoco. Varit konsult åt Shell och Esso. Han är också ansvarig för att frågan om den kommande oljebristen 1998 förts upp hos International Energy Agency.
Artikeln har också hjälpt mig att förstå min samtid - vad som ligger bakom det komplicerade förloppet alltifrån händelsen den 11 september till kriget i Afganistan och Irak, - ja också konflikten mellan Israel och Palestina. Intervjun med Campbell finns på min hemsida.
Från denna intervju vill jag sprida en speciell form av optimism och ljus inför framtiden:
"But that's not to say the world comes to an end. There are many solutions and we can picture a number of things. We can picture a reduction in affluence, we can picture a change in this sort of addiction to the market forces of the world, this abnegation by the governments who seem to dedicate themselves to this abstract notion of the market. We could come back, let's say, to life in the village of Ballydehob where I live in Ireland.
I spoke the other day to Peggy Coughlan, the elderly post-mistress in the village and I said "has life improved in the last 50 years?" She said without hesitation that "yes, of course it has!" And then I asked a rather more penetrating question when I said "well, was it bad before?" And she thought for a moment before answering and she said "No, no, it wasn't bad. We were as poor as church mice" she said, "we had nothing; our family had to club together to buy a white shirt for my father who was the schoolmaster; and us girls used to spend our evenings darning our black stockings for school, and we'd think nothing of walking ten miles to a village dance. But we would meet in people's houses for drinks and parties, and we had fun and we'd sing." And she said there was a spirit of co-operation in this village at that time: people helped each other; everybody put in a hand. And I must say that even today you find the same kind of underlying feeling in the village. It's extraordinary how we've had a lot of work done on our house, but it's difficult to pay the people doing it; it's a sort of embarrassment for them to come and present the bill!
So arising out of allof this wider oil picture, you may find a return to more local kind of communities where people live in better harmony with themselves primarily, with each other, and above all with their environment and the natural resources that are at their disposal. They may live much more simple lives than we do today, but that's not to say they may not be happier lives in may respects.
A final question: what's the most important thing that young people should be aware of for the future?
I'd say that your parents thought more about themselves than they thought about you! Not a kind thing to say, and it was unintentional and not deliberate. But the youth of the future will face a hugely more difficult life than we do. I suppose that those who appreciate that and find some kind of a niche and are not too ambitious about how much money they are going to make, and take a more philosophical view of their position, they can be still be very happy. But it will be a rather different life.